Minorities make up nearly
half the children
born in the U.S.,
part of a historic
trend in which
minorities are
expected to become
the U.S. majority
over the next 40
years.In fact,
demographers say
this year could be
the "tipping point"
when the number of
babies born to
minorities
outnumbers babies
born to whites.
The numbers are
growing because
immigration to the
U.S. has boosted the
number of Hispanic
women in their prime
childbearing years.
Minorities made
up 48 percent of
U.S. children born
in 2008, the latest
census estimates
available, compared
to 37 percent in
1990.
"Census
projections suggest
America may become a
minority-majority
country by the
middle of the
century.
For America's
children, the future
is now," said
Kenneth Johnson, a
sociology professor
at the University of
New Hampshire who
researched many of
the racial trends in
a paper being
released Wednesday.
Johnson explained
there are now more
Hispanic women of
prime childbearing
age who tend to have
more children than
women of other
races.
More white women
are waiting until
they are older to
have children, but
it is not yet known
whether that will
have a noticeable
effect on the
current trend of
increasing minority
newborns.
Broken down by
race, about 52
percent of babies
born in 2008 were
white. That's
compared to about 25
percent who were
Hispanic, 15 percent
black and 4 percent
Asian.
Another 4
percent were
identified by their
parents as
multiracial.
The numbers
highlight the
nation's growing
racial and age
divide, seen in
pockets of
communities across
the U.S., which
could heighten
tensions in current
policy debates from
immigration reform
and education to
health care and
Social Security.
There are also
strong implications
for the 2010
population count,
which begins in
earnest next week,
when more than 120
million U.S.
households receive
their census forms
in the mail.
The Census Bureau
is running public
service
announcements this
week to improve its
tally of young
children,
particularly
minorities, who are
most often missed in
the once-a-decade
head count.
The campaign
features
Nickelodeon's Dora
the Explorer, the
English- and
Spanish-speaking
cartoon character
who helps "mommy
fill out our census
form."
The population
figures are used to
distribute federal
aid and redraw
legislative
boundaries with
racial and ethnic
balance, as required
by federal law.
"The adults among
themselves sometimes
forget the census is
about everyone, and
kids should be
counted," said
Census Bureau
director Robert
Groves. "If we fail
to count a newborn
that is born this
month, that newborn
misses all the
benefits of the
census for 10
years."
Whites currently
make up two-thirds
of the total U.S.
population, and
recent census
estimates suggest
the number of
minorities may not
overtake the number
of whites until
2050.
Right now,
roughly 1 in 10 of
the nation's 3,142
counties already
have minority
populations greater
than 50 percent. But
1 in 4 communities
have more minority
children than white
children or are
nearing that point,
according to the
study, which Johnson
co-published.
That is because
Hispanic women on
average have three
children, while
other women on
average have two.
The numbers are 2.99
children for
Hispanics, 1.87 for
whites, 2.13 for
blacks and 2.04 for
Asians in the U.S.
And the number of
white women of prime
childbearing age is
on the decline,
dropping 19 percent
from 1990.
For example:
- In Gwinnett
County, Ga., an
Atlanta suburb,
the population
has shifted from
16 percent
minority in 1990
to 58 percent
minority in
2008. The number
of blacks and
Hispanics nearly
doubled, while
the number of
white young
people stayed
roughly the
same.
- The
population of
Dakota County,
Neb., increased
from 15 percent
minority in 1990
to 54 percent in
2008, due
largely to an
influx of
Hispanics who
came looking for
work in
meatpacking and
other labor.
- In Lake
County, Ind., a
suburb of
Chicago, the
minority
population grew
from 43 percent
in 1990 to 53
percent in 2008
as the number of
white children
declined, the
number of blacks
stayed stable
and the number
of Hispanics
increased.
The 2008 census
estimates used local
records of births
and deaths, tax
records of people
moving within the
U.S., and census
statistics on
immigrants.