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The Blue Storm is coming in 2010 |
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Hispanics will Turn Arizona Blue in
2010
PHOENIX (Jack Dunning, Examiner)
July 6, 2009 —
President Barack Obama may have lost
to John McCain by a 10.5 percent
margin in Maricopa County, but all
the indications are Arizona and the
Phoenix area are coming out of their
conservative shell and feeling more
comfortable with a touch of
liberalism in their politics.
Obama, of course, won the national
vote handily by 52.87 percent to
McCain’s 45.60 percent popular vote.
Arizona just hasn’t fully caught up
yet with the nationwide trend toward
a more moderate approach to
governing.
A demographic breakthrough for
Democrats means the same for
liberals and moderates, as well as
Independent voters which have become
a force in Arizona.
Currently there are 880,128
Independent and unaffiliated voters
in Arizona, a 6.8 percent gain from
last November to total 28.4 percent
of the state’s electorate.
Although
more moderate in their leanings,
enough Arizona Independents must
still be hung up on McCain for him
to win the state.
The Brookings Institute published a
paper after the 2008 Presidential
general election shows the switch
from 2004 where it is now most
prominent in the surrounding states
of Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico.
In 2004, Kerry apparently lost the
Democrats’ grip on the exploding
Hispanic vote, whereas Mr. Obama won
it by a margin of 36 points, 67
percent to McCain’s 31 percent
nationally.
In Arizona, Obama took the Hispanic
vote by 56 percent to McCain’s 41
percent, the same as Kerry in 2004.
The President also carried the white
18 to 29 age group nationally by 10
points, but that was the only age
group among whites he carried. In
another long term trend that
continues to beef up the Democrats,
white college graduates came out
solidly for the Democrats.
And yet a
third inclination toward moderate
liberalism is the trend appears to
be anchored in the nation’s metro
areas where the new population
pockets are.
On the other side of the aisle, a
Gannett News writer says the
Republicans had better hope the
current demographic trends are not
their destiny. If they are, and
Republicans continues their death
wish campaign — as an example,
labeling blowhard Rush Limbaugh as
their “unofficial leader” — there is
a definite threat to the future of
the party. This could result in a
re-thinking of the political
landscape of Arizona and the Phoenix
area, happening on both the
congressional and state levels.
Here’s how: Since the 2000 census,
the non-Hispanic white population of
Phoenix has dropped below 50 percent
with Hispanics now accounting for 49
percent of Phoenix residents and
growing by 2% per year.
With
immigration still a heated issue,
organizers of Hispanic groups are
sure to pull out all the stops when
it comes to registering their
constituents and their obvious
emphasis will be toward the
Democratic Party and Independents.
The youth vote, already in Barack
Obama’s corner is likely to continue
its liberal journey left to
Democrats and Independents.
And it’s the “I” word the
Republicans have to be concerned
with. Arizona Hispanics will
continue to support the Democrats as
long as the immigration issue is
still undecided, but particularly if
President Obama is able to pass a
fair law.
Over 44 percent of
Phoenix’s population is age 18 to
44, and based on earlier figures, at
least 28 percent of those registered
to vote already lean Independent.
Depending on the success of the
Obama administration in the next few
months, this group could lean more
heavily toward a liberal philosophy.
It will be interesting to follow
Arizona and Phoenix elections in the
next couple of years to see how
Arizona and the Phoenix area change
from red to blue.
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